Is the Yellow Jersey Already Decided? And What Now for Visma Lease a Bike?

Yesterday's Stage 12 of the Tour de France, a brutal mountain test culminating on the legendary Hautacam, delivered a seismic shift in the general classification. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates - XRG), seemingly unfazed by a crash on Wednesday, unleashed a dominant performance that left his rivals reeling and has many asking: Is the 2025 Tour de France already over?

Pogačar's victory was emphatic, crossing the line a staggering 2 minutes and 10 seconds ahead of his main GC rival, Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma | Lease a Bike). This extends Pogačar's overall lead to a commanding 3 minutes and 31 seconds, a seemingly insurmountable gap with more challenging mountain stages and another uphill time trial still to come. The Slovenian phenomenon not only claimed the stage win but also wrestled back the yellow jersey from Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost), who had enjoyed a brief stint in the lead.

The performance on Hautacam was a stark reminder of Pogačar's sheer power and resilience. Despite the pre-stage whispers about his condition after his Stage 11 tumble, he rode with an aggression and confidence that shattered the hopes of his competitors.

Check out our selection of Tour de France cycling gifts here.

What's Left for Visma Lease a Bike?

For Team Visma Lease a Bike, yesterday was a day of significant disappointment. They had clearly set out with a plan to make the race tough, utilising their strong collective to put pressure on Pogačar. However, their efforts, particularly in the build-up to the final climb, backfired somewhat, with Matteo Jorgenson, a key lieutenant, having a notably "bad day" and struggling to maintain pace.

Sports director Grischa Niermann admitted that Pogačar was "clearly on another level" and that it was a "heavy blow" for the team. While Vingegaard himself appeared to feel good, he simply couldn't match the Slovenian's acceleration on the Hautacam.

So, where does this leave Visma Lease a Bike? With a deficit of over three and a half minutes, the direct pursuit of the yellow jersey for Jonas Vingegaard looks incredibly challenging. The psychological blow of yesterday's stage will be immense.

However, it's not "the end of the world," as Niermann stated. The Tour de France is notorious for its unpredictability. Here's what Visma Lease a Bike might focus on in the remaining stages:

• Stage Wins: With the pressure of the GC potentially lifted, they have an incredibly strong roster capable of targeting individual stage victories. Wout van Aert, though currently down the GC, could be unleashed in flatter or hilly stages, and even GC riders like Vingegaard could aim for redemption on other summit finishes.
• Supporting Roles: Despite Jorgenson's struggles yesterday, he and other strong climbers like Sepp Kuss and Simon Yates will still be invaluable. They can ride for breakaways, try to make the race hard for Pogačar on certain days, or even position themselves for opportunistic moves if Pogačar shows any sign of weakness.
• Other Classifications: While the yellow jersey seems distant, the polka dot and green jerseys are still up for grabs, though Pogačar is also a strong contender for the former. Jonathan Milan currently leads the green jersey, but Van Aert could make a push if given the freedom.
• Psychological Warfare (continued): As seen earlier in the Tour with the "bottle-gate" incident, Visma has not shied away from trying to get under Pogačar's skin. While yesterday's result gives him a strong hand, they may continue to employ tactics to unsettle him or force him into mistakes, however subtle.

The Tour de France still has plenty of drama left to unfold, with more brutal mountain stages on the horizon, including an uphill time trial tomorrow. While Pogačar has laid down a formidable marker, Visma Lease a Bike will be desperate to salvage something significant from this Tour. The fight for the podium, and for any chink in Pogačar's armour, will be fascinating to watch.